This book is applicable to any coach out there. The central idea is that we are playing poker with decisions while managing the unknowns along with the knowns. It is the play on complex decision making we talk about within so much of our Coaching Curriculum. We do not know what will happen, and we do not have any clear cut means to create a comprehensive plan based on that truth. 

Duke talked about decision making through managing our knowns and unknowns to create probabilities of success. More known information increases our probability to make the correct decisions. The less information that is known decreases our probability. The essence of not knowing is the foundation of making better decisions. We have to look at any decisions through the lens of what we do not know. 

Complex decisions are all about not knowing what is true. We cannot know the path of complex problems because they are complex. There is no predictable path to navigate to with complexity. That is the point. That is poker. We can only play with the cards we have. 

The more we understand the relationship between what we know and do not know, improves our ability to make better decisions. Duke spent a large portion of the book going over the psychology of poker and thinking in probabilities with regard to decision making. It is not very difficult to imagine how this impacts someone making training plans for other people. 

There is so much unknown, and there is what we perceive to be known. We can use anecdotal evidence in our minds as known. This to me is saying the previous hand of cards will dictate what will happen with my current hand of cards. It could very well likely end up the same as long as you have the same cards, your opponents have the same cards, and everyone plays hand out exactly the same. The chances of this are really small which would mean that successfully playing the hand of anecdotal evidence would turn out to be small as well. 

Decisions are never going to be easy. Everything we do is a ‘bet’ on something. We are betting that when you are getting in your car or eating something you will have a safe outcome. Your odds of being safe are contingent on the known and unknown variables. In those two scenarios, you have a lot of experience and you have a lot of knowledge of how it will turn out. On the other hand, if you have less knowledge, you will have to gather as much information as possible in order to make a better decision. That is what thinking in bets can get across really well. Overall, a really good book.